Gold price forecast has always been a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. With high deficits, slowing growth, persistent inflation, and currency devaluation, many investors have turned to gold. As TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali points out, the current market conditions highlight several risks and opportunities for gold investors.
Risks in the Gold Technical Analysis
Our analysis indicates that the risks to gold price forecast are significant. Recent data shows that macro fund positioning is at its highest since the pandemic’s peak. This positioning suggests a potential 370 basis points cut in Fed rates over the coming year. Moreover, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are heavily invested in gold, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment. However, Chinese Gold ETF outflows have resumed, adding to the market’s uncertainties.
Current Market Positioning
In Shanghai, trader positions are at near-record highs, demonstrating gold’s strong appeal amid a weakening domestic currency and struggling stock and property markets. Although gold price forecast narratives are overwhelmingly bullish, there are risks tied to current positioning that could impact short-term price movements.
Potential Catalysts
The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium could serve as an initial catalyst for gold prices. However, the release of the next payrolls data may prove to be a more impactful factor. Investors should watch for these events as they could influence gold’s near-term trajectory.
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