The gold price forecast (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high recorded on Thursday but maintains stability above the $3,100 level in early European trading. Amid overbought market conditions, investors engage in profit-taking, leading to a modest pullback. However, concerns over potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs continue to bolster demand for the safe-haven metal.
Key Market Insights: Gold Price and Economic Factors
- Trump’s Tariffs Impact Global Trade: The US administration has enforced a 10% baseline tariff on imports, with additional duties on major trading partners. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry has vowed retaliatory actions, escalating global trade tensions.
- US Dollar Weakness: A tariff-induced economic slowdown in the US has fueled expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, dragging the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since October 2024.
- Treasury Bond Yields Decline: A risk-off sentiment and Fed rate-cut speculations drive US Treasury bond yields lower, providing additional support for gold prices.
- Stronger-than-Expected US Jobs Data: The US ADP employment report showed a robust increase of 155K private-sector jobs in March, surpassing forecasts. However, concerns over Trump’s economic policies limit the impact on USD.
- Upcoming Economic Releases: Market participants await the US Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI, and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for further guidance.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Crucial Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory, discouraging fresh bullish bets. A short-term price consolidation or pullback may occur before the next leg higher in gold’s multi-month uptrend, reinforcing the overall gold price forecast.
- Immediate Support: The $3,123 level serves as initial support, with a sustained dip potentially opening the door for a test of the $3,100 pivotal mark.
- Deeper Correction Levels: A decisive break below $3,100 could lead to further declines towards $3,076 (weekly swing low), followed by $3,057-$3,058, $3,036-$3,035, and the psychological $3,000 threshold.
- Upside Momentum: If bullish sentiment resumes, gold may reclaim $3,150, setting the stage for a potential retest of its record high.
Conclusion: Gold Price Outlook
Despite the recent pullback, gold’s overall trend remains bullish due to heightened global trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening US Dollar. Traders should monitor key technical levels and upcoming economic data releases to gauge short-term price action.
For further insights, visit our Daily Gold Signal website. For more daily updates on gold prices and market trends, check out our Daily Gold Update section.
