Gold price forecast attracts dip-buyers following an intraday decline below the $2,900 level, climbing to a fresh daily high during the early European session on Friday. However, the precious metal remains within a multi-day consolidation phase as traders exercise caution ahead of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The employment data will play a key role in influencing US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and providing fresh momentum to gold.
Key Takeaways for Gold Price:
- Gold price forecast finds support near the $2,900 threshold amid USD weakness and trade tensions.
- Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets weigh on the USD, boosting demand for gold.
- Trade concerns surrounding US policies add to safe-haven appeal for bullion.
Market Context: Gold Supported by Fed Rate Cut Bets and Trade Uncertainty
Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates multiple times in 2025 due to slowing US economic growth have kept the USD under pressure near multi-month lows, favoring gold prices. Additionally, concerns over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and their potential impact on global economic stability continue to weigh on investor sentiment. This cautious approach is evident in weaker equity markets, further bolstering demand for the safe-haven metal.
Daily Market Movers: Factors Influencing Gold Price Movement
- Mounting trade war concerns contribute to ongoing USD weakness.
- Trump’s shifting tariff policies on Mexico and Canada fuel market uncertainty.
- Fed officials signal mixed views on rate cuts, impacting USD sentiment.
- Job market data, including initial jobless claims, shows a stronger-than-expected drop.
- Investors await US NFP data to gauge future Fed policy direction.
Technical Insights: Gold Price Needs to Clear $2,934 to Extend Gains
From a technical standpoint, gold has demonstrated resilience below the $2,900 mark, warranting caution for bearish traders. The daily chart indicators remain positive, signaling continued demand. However, a decisive move below this psychological level could accelerate declines towards the $2,860-$2,858 support zone, with intermediate support near $2,884-$2,883. Further downside could lead to last week’s swing low of $2,833-$2,832 before testing the $2,800 level.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
- Immediate resistance: $2,926-$2,930 zone
- Next target: All-time high near $2,956 (February peak)
- Major support: $2,860-$2,858 zone
- Bearish breakdown level: $2,800
Expert Opinions and Market Outlook
Federal Reserve officials remain divided on future rate policy, with some emphasizing economic resilience while others highlight inflationary risks. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has acknowledged growing economic threats, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stressed market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller opposed a rate cut in March but suggested that cuts later in the year remain possible if inflation pressures ease.
Economic Calendar Focus: US Nonfarm Payrolls Report
Market participants are closely watching the upcoming NFP report, expected to show a job gain of 160K in February with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. Stronger-than-expected job data could dampen Fed rate cut expectations and weigh on gold, while weaker figures may reinforce bullish sentiment for the precious metal.
Conclusion: Gold Awaits Breakout Amid Mixed Market Signals
Gold remains supported by Fed rate cut expectations and persistent trade uncertainties. However, a sustained move beyond $2,934 is necessary to confirm bullish momentum and pave the way for a retest of the all-time high at $2,956. Meanwhile, a break below $2,900 could expose the commodity to further downside risk. As traders await US employment data, gold is poised for volatility in the near term.
For further insights, visit Daily Gold Signal. For detailed daily gold updates, check out Daily Gold Updates.
