Gold prices remain below $3,000, trading near $2,990 as of Monday. This follows Friday’s profit-taking correction after reaching a fresh all-time high of $3,005. Traders are preparing for a busy week, with key geopolitical and economic events set to influence market movements. On Tuesday, the German Bundestag will vote on a €1 trillion defense spending plan aimed at boosting European industry. Additionally, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal.
Adding to market anticipation, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will closely monitor policymakers’ votes and forward guidance from the Dot Plot curve. While no immediate monetary policy changes are expected, market speculation continues about a possible rate cut in May or June.
Market Movers: US Retail Sales Impact Gold Prices
- US Retail Sales Data: The latest retail sales figures in the US have weighed on gold prices, erasing some intraday gains. Monthly retail sales increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.7% estimate. The previous reading was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%, highlighting weaker-than-expected consumer spending.
- Geopolitical Developments: President Trump confirmed that his discussion with Putin will focus on territorial matters and asset divisions. He expressed optimism about a potential resolution.
- Gold Price Outlook by UBS: UBS Group AG has joined other financial institutions in raising gold price forecasts, citing concerns over prolonged global trade tensions. Analysts now project gold could reach $3,200 in the second quarter.
- Fed Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.0% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting. The likelihood of a rate cut in May currently stands at 27.5%.
Technical Analysis: Gold’s Key Levels
The $3,000 psychological level remains a crucial price point. A temporary dip below this mark may allow traders to re-enter at more favorable prices. If gold stabilizes above $3,000, the next upside targets will be $3,100 and $3,200 in the coming weeks or months.
- Resistance Levels: The new all-time high of $3,004, reached on Friday, serves as the first hurdle. The R1 resistance at $2,999 further reinforces this zone. The next resistance level, R2 at $3,015, may be difficult to reach in the short term.
- Support Levels: The daily pivot point at $2,989 has acted as a strong support level. A break below could lead to further downside towards S1 at $2,973 and S2 at $2,962.
Conclusion
Gold prices remain near $2,990 as traders assess weak US retail sales, geopolitical developments, and upcoming Fed decisions. The $3,000 level remains a key psychological barrier. If it holds, the next upside targets are $3,100 and $3,200. Market participants should stay alert to upcoming economic and geopolitical events that could drive further price action.
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) remains below $3,000, trading near $2,990 as of Monday. This follows Friday’s profit-taking correction after reaching a fresh all-time high of $3,005. Traders are preparing for a busy week, with key geopolitical and economic events set to influence market movements. On Tuesday, the German Bundestag will vote on a €1 trillion defense spending plan aimed at boosting European industry. Additionally, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal.
Adding to market anticipation, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will closely monitor policymakers’ votes and forward guidance from the Dot Plot curve. While no immediate monetary policy changes are expected, market speculation continues about a possible rate cut in May or June.
Market Movers: US Retail Sales Impact Gold Prices
- US Retail Sales Data: The latest retail sales figures in the US have weighed on gold prices, erasing some intraday gains. Monthly retail sales increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.7% estimate. The previous reading was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%, highlighting weaker-than-expected consumer spending.
- Geopolitical Developments: President Trump confirmed that his discussion with Putin will focus on territorial matters and asset divisions. He expressed optimism about a potential resolution.
- Gold Price Outlook by UBS: UBS Group AG has joined other financial institutions in raising gold price forecasts, citing concerns over prolonged global trade tensions. Analysts now project gold could reach $3,200 in the second quarter.
- Fed Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.0% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting. The likelihood of a rate cut in May currently stands at 27.5%.
Technical Analysis: Gold’s Key Levels
The $3,000 psychological level remains a crucial price point. A temporary dip below this mark may allow traders to re-enter at more favorable prices. If gold stabilizes above $3,000, the next upside targets will be $3,100 and $3,200 in the coming weeks or months.
- Resistance Levels: The new all-time high of $3,004, reached on Friday, serves as the first hurdle. The R1 resistance at $2,999 further reinforces this zone. The next resistance level, R2 at $3,015, may be difficult to reach in the short term.
- Support Levels: The daily pivot point at $2,989 has acted as a strong support level. A break below could lead to further downside towards S1 at $2,973 and S2 at $2,962.
Conclusion
Gold prices remain near $2,990 as traders assess weak US retail sales, geopolitical developments, and upcoming Fed decisions. The $3,000 level remains a key psychological barrier. If it holds, the next upside targets are $3,100 and $3,200. Market participants should stay alert to upcoming economic and geopolitical events that could drive further price action.
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